As the U.S. doubles down on its tariff-heavy trade strategy, attention naturally shifts to the usual suspects: economic downturns, disrupted supply chains, and shaken markets. But behind these headlines lies a quieter, more insidious consequence: the growing threat of Insider Risk.
While the world debates GDP forecasts and inflation curves, the real damage may be unfolding within organisations - on factory floors, inside IT departments, and across global workforces. When economic pressure builds, vulnerabilities surface. When job security disappears, loyalty follows. And in these conditions, the insider threat doesn’t just grow, it thrives.
This blog explores how current U.S. policy is amplifying Insider Risk at two levels. Organisationally, by increasing financial stress, employee dissatisfaction, and weakening internal security infrastructure. Geopolitically, by handing adversarial states like China the perfect climate to deepen influence and exploit instability.
Every credible recruitment of an insider starts with a profile. Recruiters, whether foreign intelligence operatives or industrial spies, look for stress points: financial pressure, job dissatisfaction, unmet ambitions, and tariffs create the perfect storm.
As factories face higher costs and shrinking margins, organisations cut jobs, freeze pay, and frantically reconfigure supply chains. Employees, especially mid-level managers and technical staff, feel the squeeze. The result? A growing population of disillusioned workers, increasingly visible to would-be recruiters.
Tariffs may be aimed at countries, but the collateral damage often lands squarely on everyday workers, some of whom might now see economic espionage not as treason, but as survival.
Ask most economists what companies do in response to market volatility, and the answer is unambiguous: they retreat from global footprints to regional operations. The idea is to build resilience, to weather uncertainty closer to home.
But that retreat has unintended consequences. When regional data becomes the centrepiece of strategy - supplier lists, market pricing, regional consumer trends - it becomes a prime espionage target. Adversarial states and corporate competitors are watching. The more critical and localised the data, the more attractive it becomes. As markets fracture and tariffs bite, intellectual property isn't just valuable - it's vulnerable.
Tariffs disrupt more than revenue - they blow up supply chains. Trusted suppliers exit, new ones rush in, and due diligence gets left behind.
Vetting processes shrink, background checks are skipped, and third-party partners multiply at a pace few security teams can keep up with. In this chaos, embedding a pliable insider becomes easier than ever. Sometimes they walk in through the front door. Other times, they arrive via subcontractor or outsourced support desk. Security gaps in the supply chain aren’t just accidents, they’re invitations.
In response to economic strain, companies trim the fat - and often, the muscle. Security budgets are no exception. Cyber teams are downsized. Physical security is deprioritised. Insider Risk programmes are “paused until further notice.” It’s understandable - but dangerous. Because while defences are being lowered, the threat level is rising. To underinvest in countermeasures during a period of increased threat is more than short-sighted - it’s reckless.
In all this chaos, steps in China - with cash in one hand and contracts in the other. While U.S. policy has leaned toward punishment, Beijing is betting on persuasion. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, often called the “New Silk Road,” is now functioning more like a Neo-Marshall Plan - a strategic wave of investments, loans, and infrastructure deals that promise short-term relief and long-term loyalty.
In the wake of Trump’s tariffs, Chinese officials wasted no time lining up summits with leaders from Malaysia, Cambodia, and Vietnam - all countries hit hard by U.S. trade policy. The pitch? Let us help you rebuild. New ports, highways, digital infrastructure, and even entire smart cities - funded, built, and quietly influenced by Beijing.
For example, Vietnam recently began reviewing regulatory hurdles for Chinese-made COMAC aircraft to enter its market. VietJet, Vietnam’s leading budget airline, is set to become the first carrier in the country to operate COMAC ARJ21-700 aircraft (marketed as the C909) on domestic routes starting April 15, 2025. This marks a significant step for COMAC in its efforts to expand internationally and challenge the longstanding duopoly of Airbus and Boeing. Aviation analysts note that Vietnam’s openness to exploring Chinese aircraft signals a willingness to diversify partnerships in its aviation sector while addressing growing demand for modern jets. This development highlights China’s strategic push into Southeast Asia's aviation market while showcasing its ability to leverage economic ties for geopolitical influence.
It’s a classic soft power move but with modern stakes. Just like the original Marshall Plan pulled post-WWII Europe closer to the U.S., China’s economic overtures aim to lock Southeast Asia into its orbit. And with economic dependency comes something more dangerous: strategic vulnerability. If your infrastructure, telecom systems, and cloud platforms are "Made in China", guess who holds the keys?
The "safe harbour" offered by China is proving as turbulent as the open seas. U.S. tariff-induced economic stress, combined with China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia, creates both the motive and the means for modern espionage. The target is no longer just government secrets; it’s IP, source code, procurement strategies, and R&D - corporate assets that can tilt markets. The more stressed and unstable an organization is, the easier it is to infiltrate. Sometimes, all it takes is a low-level employee with access and a motive. In other cases, espionage is disguised as "consulting partnerships" or innocuous third-party contractors.
As China deepens its economic entanglements with vulnerable nations, it gains plausible deniability. Information gathered often doesn’t come from hackers or state agents - it often comes from willing insiders, operating in plain sight. Neither the harbour nor the sea now offers a hiding place from Poseidon and his storms, manifesting in human risk in the form of the Insider.
In this climate, Insiders do not just grow - they morph, they adapt, and they become the perfect weapon in a quiet war that’s already well underway. As we navigate this new era of economic and strategic uncertainty, perhaps the real question isn’t just how we defend against outsiders, but how well we understand what’s happening on the inside.
In times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, Insider Risks intensify. As with all risks, Insider Risk is fluid. Is your organisation adequately prepared to defend against the growing Insider Risk?